WattBites · Daily Market Briefing
Tuesday 28 April 2026
GB day-ahead jumps 8.8% on wind drought and cold snap, while Hormuz blockade drives TTF into geopolitical premium territory.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Today DA avg | £101.86/MWh | |
| Peak (07:00-19:00) | £104.13/MWh | |
| Super-peak (16:00-19:00) | — | |
| Off-peak (19:00-07:00) | £100.05/MWh | |
| Peak/off-peak spread | +£4.08/MWh | |
| Day-on-day | +£8.26/MWh | up |
| SBP avg (yest) | £101.04/MWh | |
| SBP range | £65.21–£135 | |
| IMRP 7-day avg | £91.99/MWh | |
| IMRP 30-day avg | £82.55/MWh | |
| TTF front month | EUR44.13/MWh | |
| EUA carbon | EUR75.11/t | |
| Wind avg (yest) | 4.86 GW | |
| Solar avg (yest) | 2.98 GW | |
| System balance | +743 MW avg (long) |
📊 Market Analysis
DA settlement £101.86/MWh vs £93.6 yesterday amid forecasted wind collapse into week-end (SP17-SP25 critical). NIV swung positive 26 long periods but +743 MW average masks deteriorating baseline—constrained interconnector exports (Moyle, GRNL) signalling system strain. SBP averaged £101.04 (+£7.44 vs DA): modest backwardation but room to widen if wind underperforms. Peak-off spread compressed to tight £4.08/MWh, reflecting base load push. CfD developers: IMRP rolls 7-day at £91.99, 30-day at £82.55—monitor for sustained front-month premium as nuclear maintenance at Heysham 1/2, Torness constrains baseload further into May.
📈 Macro Context
Today's move breaks four-day consolidation. 30-day baseline £82.55 now buried 22.9% below prompt—stark steepening on unresolved Hormuz blockade pushing crude into multi-week highs (Brent $108.23/bbl +2.75% Monday). Gas correlation intact: TTF repricing geopolitical tail risk while storage momentum stalls at 31.47% EU-wide. Weather window: mild/windy Monday seduced traders; May forecasts shift materially windier mid-week, but nuclear unplanned outages (Heysham extended, Torness heavy maintenance slate) provide floor. Seasonality headwind as system turns net long Easter holidays fade.
🌍 Gas, Carbon & Geopolitics
TTF rose to €44.13/MWh on April 29, up from €44 Monday on Strait blockade persistence. Carbon prices supported by broader energy market tensions linked to Middle East conflict, with the strait disrupting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. EUA hit €75.11/t (up 0.50% Monday)—supply deficit narrative holds. IEA reports tight gas supplies extending into 2027, with LNG imports dropping for first time in over a year. No ceasefire momentum: Trump cancelled Pakistan talks. Summer jet fuel scarcity real risk for July-Aug; IEA warned mid-April Europe had roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves.
🇮🇪 Ireland / I-SEM
East-West (IE) flatlined at 0 MW import; Moyle exporting 452 MW into GB, suggesting Irish system long on wind (Hornsea/Dogger Bank flows likely backhaul). No I-SEM pricing data available intraday. Monitor RoI demand response activation if Larne Nuclear extends outage window.
🔭 Outlook
Wednesday: wind outlook strengthens materially mid-week per Prestige/Meteo models. May-26 baseload £89.55 (May expiry imminent); Jun-26 fair value £92–94 range if wind proves. Key risk: late-May Torness, Sizewell B, Heysham maintenance cascade—model 2–3 GW baseload deficit into June peak demand window. DA auction 08:00 GMT: expect 98–103 range given overnight cooling and Tuesday's shock absorption. Watch nuclear risk premium accrete if unplanned outages mount.
📰 In Brief