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System Forecast

This is a work in progress:

System Price Forecast
GB SBP/SSP probabilistic forecast — 1 to 6 settlement periods ahead
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Model note: Rule-based heuristic forecast — not machine learning or a commercial model. Probabilistic bands (P10–P90) reflect uncertainty. Accuracy degrades with horizon. Cannot predict constraint episodes. For information only — do not use for trading decisions. Track model accuracy →
Current system state
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SBP/SSP forecast — P10/P50/P90 band (£/MWh)
P50 central estimate P10–P90 band DA price anchor
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Recent outturn vs forecast P50
Actual SBP P50 forecast
Model accuracy tracker
Features: Elexon BMRS FUELINST (instantaneous generation), INDO (demand outturn), TSDF (demand forecast), WINDFOR (wind forecast), IMBALNGC (indicated imbalance/NIV), day-ahead price (APXMIDP), Sheffield Solar PV_Live (solar). Outturn: Elexon balancing/settlement/system-prices. Model: rule-based heuristic, not ML. Forecast updates when IONOS cron triggers (typically morning + afternoon).