WattBites · Daily Market Briefing
Wednesday 6 May 2026
Day-ahead baseload settled at 109.26 £/MWh on Tuesday after a 3.46 £/MWh rise, with today's DA prices jumping +12.4% driven by tightening nuclear availability and low wind, whilst offshore wind generation holds above 4GW.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Today delivery avg (D) | £117.73/MWh | |
| Peak (07:00-19:00 GB) | £127.21/MWh | |
| Super-peak (16:00-19:00 GB) | — | |
| Off-peak (19:00-07:00 GB) | £110.13/MWh | |
| Peak/off-peak spread | +£17.08/MWh | |
| Day-on-day (D vs D-1) | +£12.97/MWh | up |
| Yesterday settlement avg (D-1) | £104.76/MWh | |
| SBP avg (D-1) | £100.01/MWh | |
| SBP range | £72.3–£143 | |
| IMRP 7-day avg | £94.93/MWh | |
| IMRP 30-day avg | £89.28/MWh | |
| TTF front month | EUR43.75/MWh | |
| EUA carbon | EUR75.97/t | |
| Wind avg (D-1) | 5.58 GW | |
| Solar avg (D-1) | 3.25 GW | |
| System balance (D-1) | +2299 MW avg (long) |
📊 Market Analysis
D baseload settles £117.73/MWh (+£12.97 vs D-1), peak lifted to £127.21/MWh on Hornsea/Dogger Bank scarcity. Off-peak commands £110.13/MWh revealing peak/off-peak compression. Yesterday's NIV +2299 MW long through 38 long SPs, SBP-DA spread -£4.75/MWh pointing to undersupply. BritNed (798 MW import) and Nemo Link (918 MW import) clogged; East-West (530 MW export) and Viking Link (232 MW export) providing relief but insufficient. Balancing pressure evident: DA riding 12.4% premium vs Monday settlement.
📈 Macro Context
D averaging £117.73/MWh vs 7-day IMRP rollover at £94.93/MWh and 30-day at £89.28/MWh—sustained volatility above rolling averages flags tight fundamentals. An unplanned outage at Hartlepool 1 has further tightened nuclear availability, adding to existing planned outages. May's wind forecast running about 1 m/s below seasonal norm with forecasts oscillating around that level until late this weekend. SBP tracking DA closely (£100.01 vs £104.76 D-1 DA) argues balancing market efficiently priced but leaves zero margin for error. CfD counterparties watching: IMRP floor risk escalating.
🌍 Gas, Carbon & Geopolitics
TTF Gas fell to 43.75 EUR/MWh on May 6, 2026, down 6.76% from the previous day, tracking Middle East de-escalation talk. Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are close to a preliminary deal that could pave the way for broader nuclear negotiations. EU Carbon Permits rose to 75.97 EUR on May 6, 2026, up 0.37% from the previous day. Qatar Energy extended its force majeure on LNG supply through to mid-June, which leaves the market without clarity on when Qatari volumes return, capping any rally in European price floor.
🇮🇪 Ireland / I-SEM
European natural gas futures dropped more than 2% to around €47 per megawatt hour, easing from a four-week high. East-West interconnector holds 530 MW export capacity into I-SEM: tight NI-RoI basis persists as Dublin anchors to TTF de-escalation rather than spot power strength.
🔭 Outlook
Temperatures are forecast to drop to around 2°C below seasonal norm on Thursday before recovering above norm into the weekend. Wind pickup unlikely until weekend; expect DA to remain premium to 7-day IMRP through Thursday. Watch Sizewell B offline risk flagged for May—further nuclear loss could push D/D+1 into £120s+ territory if wind does not materialise. SBP volatility likely to persist on marginal supply balancing.
📰 In Brief