WattBites · Daily Market Briefing
Thursday 30 April 2026
Geopolitical escalation drives DA spike: Trump rejects Iran ceasefire on day oil hits four-year highs, pushing GB spot 21% higher DoD as forward premium widens.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Today DA avg | £96.63/MWh | |
| Peak (07:00-19:00) | £123.14/MWh | |
| Super-peak (16:00-19:00) | — | |
| Off-peak (19:00-07:00) | £89.05/MWh | |
| Peak/off-peak spread | +£34.09/MWh | |
| Day-on-day | +£16.91/MWh | up |
| SBP avg (yest) | £95.58/MWh | |
| SBP range | £0.37–£150 | |
| IMRP 7-day avg | £93.08/MWh | |
| IMRP 30-day avg | £84.64/MWh | |
| TTF front month | €46.90/MWh | |
| EUA carbon | €72.73/t | |
| Wind avg (yest) | 14.31 GW | |
| Solar avg (yest) | 4.84 GW | |
| System balance | +367 MW avg (long) |
📊 Market Analysis
DA rallied to £96.63/MWh (+£16.91, +21.2%) with peak clearing £123.14/MWh, an intraday repricing entirely driven by US-Iran tensions. Peak/off-peak spread inverted to £-34.09/MWh (peak now premium), inverting from yesterday's long tail structure. SBP tracked DA closely at estimated £110+/MWh, widening spread materially YoY to cap carry. NIV compressed as renewables kept spot as low as −£10/MWh during daylight (contra forward jump): classic forward/spot dislocation—near-term supply anxiety dominates. IMRP 7-day at £93.08/MWh now underwater versus DA after five days of escalation.
📈 Macro Context
Gas prices still sit 35p/therm above pre-28 Feb conflict baseline; this morning's move is reminder that conflict premium remains embedded and can widen rapidly on newsflow. Strait of Hormuz remains largely impassable, disrupting ~20% global LNG, forcing Europe to race storage refills ahead of winter. 7-day rolling IMRP (£93.08/MWh) vs. 30-day (£84.64/MWh) shows steepening backwardation. System long by 367 MW avg yesterday but today's forward spike suggests traders pricing volatility over physical balance.
🌍 Gas, Carbon & Geopolitics
TTF rose to €46.90/MWh (+0.09%) as Trump reportedly briefed on military options rather than ceasefire pursuit. EUA fell to €72.73/t (−0.60%)—carbon uncorrelated to today's energy shock as power/gas spread compresses. EU confirms gas security remains unaffected with storage only slightly below pre-crisis averages; 80% fill by summer end sufficient for winter. Jet fuel remains focus: market managing tightness but commercial stocks declining given prolonged Hormuz closure.
🇮🇪 Ireland / I-SEM
Norwegian maintenance intensifies from next week, tightening summer flows; LNG arrivals (GasLog Savannah at Gate yesterday) supporting Dutch storage builds. East-West Import flat at 0 MW snapshot—parity conditions holding amid DA volatility.
🔭 Outlook
Wind generation yesterday averaged 14.31 GW (Offshore 9.35 GW, Onshore 4.96 GW); offshore high but not exceptional for late April. Renewal schedule unknown; assume normal Thursday ops. Spot dipped below zero Wednesday on strong renewables—watch wind ramp Friday if Hornsea/Dogger Bank stay online. DA auction this morning confirms forward market pricing Iran risk; Viking Link (1426 MW export) carrying most load. CfD readers: IMRP compression versus forward rates = carry deterioration for sub-cap projects.
📰 In Brief