WattBites · Daily Market Briefing
Wednesday 29 April 2026
GB power down 24% on stronger wind/solar; East-West loop broken; Hormuz blockade sustains TTF and SBP premium.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Today DA avg | £63.81/MWh | |
| Peak (07:00-19:00) | £61.67/MWh | |
| Super-peak (16:00-19:00) | — | |
| Off-peak (19:00-07:00) | £65.51/MWh | |
| Peak/off-peak spread | £-3.84/MWh | |
| Day-on-day | £-20.16/MWh | down |
| SBP avg (yest) | £101.28/MWh | |
| SBP range | £5.44–£136 | |
| IMRP 7-day avg | £95.99/MWh | |
| IMRP 30-day avg | £84.69/MWh | |
| TTF front month | EUR44.13/MWh | |
| EUA carbon | EUR72.73/t | |
| Wind avg (yest) | 8.49 GW | |
| Solar avg (yest) | 4.6 GW | |
| System balance | +1329 MW avg (long) |
📊 Market Analysis
Today's DA plunged £20/MWh to £63.81 on 8.5GW wind + 4.6GW solar generation, pushing peak below off-peak (£61.67 vs £65.51). Yesterday's NIV was long +1329MW avg (38 long SPs), signalling oversupply compression; SBP/DA spread +£17.31 indicates balancing pressures despite loose system. East-West at 0MW (vs 451MW export yesterday) shows I-SEM price drift. BritNed and Nemo Link importing >1.9GW combined—continental arbitrage active. Interconnector flows suggest European gas-to-power push offsetting GB's renewable bounce.
📈 Macro Context
Today's DA £63.81 sits £20.16 below yesterday but remains 24% above 30-day rolling average (£84.69/MWh IMRP). 7-day IMRP average at £95.99 reflects sustained Hormuz risk premium. Yesterday's SBP/DA spread of +£17.31 (vs historical £2-5 norm) shows system tightness during low-wind transition; renewable volatility creating intraday balancing cost. Outflow from France (978MW import on IFA) and sustained Viking Link/Nemo import stance points to continental demand strength. Peak/off-peak spread now inverted (-£35.32 yesterday), unprecedented for late April—solar saturation flattening peak spreads.
🌍 Gas, Carbon & Geopolitics
TTF gas at EUR44.13/MWh (up 1.06% d-o-d), holding two-week highs as Strait of Hormuz remained choked after US-Iran peace talks stalled, with both sides maintaining blockade. EUA carbon fell to EUR72.73/t (down 0.60% d-o-d), bucking support from energy scarcity but pressured by softer demand expectations. In first 17 days of Iran war, EU forced to spend EUR6bn additional on fossil fuel imports due to soaring prices. IEA reported tight gas supplies will extend into 2027, with LNG imports dropping for first time in >1 year.
🇮🇪 Ireland / I-SEM
East-West interconnector at 0MW import (flipped from 451MW export yesterday), suggesting Irish power prices firmed vs GB spot (DA £63.81 may have narrowed I-SEM spreads). Moyle still exporting 451MW to I-SEM; watch for demand collapse in Dublin if wind forecast hardens—I-SEM typically reprices 90min ahead of GB.
🔭 Outlook
Wednesday (today) DA published weak on renewable stack: 8.5GW wind, 4.6GW solar should sustain <£65/MWh floor into evening. Norwegian maintenance (Aasta Hansteen -5.6mcm/d, unplanned Sleipner/Gullfaks cuts) supporting European gas—TTF could test EUR45 if Hormuz talks break again. Watch Viking Link load balance vs Continental thermal brings; Dogger Bank Phase 2 ramp-up (now >1.2GW) adding capacity cushion. No major GB outages flagged; Hornsea nominal.
📰 In Brief